±10 PTS
100%
within 10pts of human
CALIBRATION
GOOD
24×≤5pts · 29×≤10pts
›Model accuracy is GOOD — 100.0% of events within ±10 pts of human label
BORDER CLASH17×+0.7MAE 3.8 NUCLEAR ESCALATION12×+1.9MAE 2.7 EVENTMODELHUMANERRORSEVERITYBARSOUTCOME
P81965-04Indiaborder clash
Rann of Kutch — India-Pakistan border skirmish
46.0
40
+6
48%
LOW
P81967-09Indiaborder clash
Nathu La and Cho La clashes — India-China border battles
54.6
50
+4.6
65%
LOW
P81969-03Chinaborder clash
Zhenbao Island clash — Sino-Soviet border confrontation
60.3
66
-5.7
78%
ESCLOW
P81995-01Ecuadorborder clash
Cenepa War — Ecuador-Peru border conflict
53.2
48
+5.2
62%
LOW
P81998-05Indianuclear escalation
Pokhran-II — India conducts nuclear tests
76.0
75
+1
82%
ESCSPILLMED
P81998-05Pakistannuclear escalation
Pakistan Chagai nuclear tests — response to Pokhran-II
75.1
73
+2.1
80%
ESCSPILLMED
P81999-05Indiaborder clash
Kargil War — India-Pakistan border conflict in Kashmir
61.9
65
-3.1
82%
ESCMED
P82001-12Indiaborder clash
Operation Parakram — India-Pakistan military mobilisation
59.0
62
-3
75%
MED
P82002-08Irannuclear escalation
Iran Natanz enrichment revelation — secret nuclear facility exposed
69.3
65
+4.3
68%
ESCMED
P82003-01North Koreanuclear escalation
DPRK withdrawal from NPT — expelled IAEA inspectors
72.8
70
+2.8
75%
ESCMED
P82004-02Pakistannuclear escalation
A.Q. Khan network exposure — Pakistan nuclear proliferation ring
72.8
72
+0.8
75%
SPILLLOW
P82006-10North Koreanuclear escalation
DPRK first nuclear test — Punggye-ri underground detonation
74.2
72
+2.2
78%
ESCMED
P82007-09Syrianuclear escalation
Operation Orchard — Israel destroys Syrian nuclear reactor
70.3
68
+2.3
70%
LOW
P82007-11Pakistannuclear escalation
Pakistan nuclear security crisis — political instability and custody fears
69.3
65
+4.3
68%
LOW
P82010-11South Koreaborder clash
Yeonpyeong Island shelling — North Korea attacks South Korea
57.7
62
-4.3
72%
MED
P82011-02Thailandborder clash
Preah Vihear temple border clashes — Thailand-Cambodia
42.5
35
+7.5
42%
LOW
P82014-05Vietnamborder clash
Haiyang Shiyou 981 standoff — China-Vietnam South China Sea
47.0
44
+3
50%
SPILLLOW
P82015-11Turkeyborder clash
Turkey shoots down Russian Su-24 — NATO-Russia border incident
57.7
62
-4.3
72%
MED
P82016-04Azerbaijanborder clash
Armenia-Azerbaijan Four-Day War — Nagorno-Karabakh escalation
54.6
52
+2.6
65%
LOW
P82016-09Indiaborder clash
India surgical strikes across LoC — response to Uri attack
53.2
48
+5.2
62%
LOW
P82017-06Indiaborder clash
Doklam standoff — India-China 73-day military confrontation
48.1
45
+3.1
52%
LOW
P82017-09North Koreanuclear escalation
DPRK hydrogen bomb test — sixth and largest nuclear test
89.5
85
+4.5
90%
ESCSPILLHIG
P82017-11North Koreanuclear escalation
DPRK Hwasong-15 ICBM test — demonstrated US mainland range
77.2
80
-2.8
85%
ESCHIG
P82018-11Ukraineborder clash
Kerch Strait incident — Russia seizes Ukrainian naval vessels
51.2
50
+1.2
58%
LOW
P82019-02Indiaborder clash
Balakot airstrike — India strikes Pakistan after Pulwama
57.7
60
-2.3
72%
ESCMED
P82020-06Indiaborder clash
Galwan Valley clash — India-China deadly border confrontation
56.0
58
-2
68%
ESCMED
P82021-04Irannuclear escalation
Iran enrichment to 60% — approaching weapons-grade threshold
71.3
68
+3.3
72%
ESCMED
P82023-02Irannuclear escalation
Iran enrichment to 84% — near weapons-grade detection
76.0
78
-2
82%
ESCMED
P82023-10Israelborder clash
Lebanon-Israel border escalation — Hezbollah exchanges post-Oct 7
56.8
58
-1.2
70%
ESCSPILLMED
BARS: █ model · █ humanERROR: ≤5pts GOOD · ≤10pts OK · >10pts REVIEWClick row to expand