±10 PTS
100%
within 10pts of human
CALIBRATION
GOOD
40×≤5pts · 40×≤10pts
›Model accuracy is GOOD — 100.0% of events within ±10 pts of human label
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT10×-0.1MAE 0.1 CENTRAL BANK SURPRISE5×0.0MAE 0.0 ELECTION CRISIS3×0.0MAE 0.0 EVENTMODELHUMANERRORSEVERITYBARSOUTCOME
P152015-01Switzerlandcentral bank surprise
Swiss National Bank surprise rate cut — negative rates deepened
28.0
28
0
20%
LOW
P152017-09Kenyaelection crisis
Kenya election petition — Supreme Court annulment 2017
22.0
22
0
16%
LOW
P152017-11Russiasanctions
Canada Magnitsky Act designations — first batch
20.0
20
0
14%
LOW
P152018-05United Kingdomsanctions
UK post-Brexit sanctions framework — Sanctions and Anti-Money Laundering Act
15.0
15
0
9%
LOW
P152018-12Madagascarelection crisis
Madagascar disputed election — opposition boycott
18.0
18
0
12%
LOW
P152019-07Japantrade
Japan-South Korea export controls dispute — semiconductor materials
30.0
30
0
32%
LOW
P152019-07Francetrade
EU digital services tax dispute — US Section 301 retaliation threat
22.0
22
0
20%
LOW
P152019-07Myanmarsanctions
US Myanmar individual designations — pre-coup targeted measures
18.0
18
0
12%
LOW
P152019-10Lebanonprotest
Lebanon Thawra protests — anti-corruption demonstrations
30.0
30
0
24%
LOW
P152019-10Chileprotest
Chile pension reform protests — Santiago demonstrations
25.0
25
0
18%
LOW
P152019-11Boliviaelection crisis
Bolivia disputed election — Morales resignation and interim government
28.0
28
0
23%
LOW
P152020-01Polandprotest
Poland judicial reform protests — EU rule-of-law dispute
20.0
20
0
13%
LOW
P152020-03Canadacentral bank surprise
Bank of Canada emergency rate cut — COVID response
22.0
22
0
14%
LOW
P152020-03Thailandtrade
Thailand rice export restrictions — minor supply concern
20.0
20
0
17%
LOW
P152020-06Nepalborder clash
India-Nepal border dispute — Kalapani territory tensions
18.0
18
0
11%
LOW
P152020-10Belarussanctions
EU Belarus individual sanctions — pre-Ryanair targeted measures
20.0
20
0
14%
LOW
P152020-12Central African Republicsanctions
EU Central African Republic sanctions — targeted measures
20.0
20
0
14%
LOW
P152021-01Sudanborder clash
Ethiopia-Sudan border dispute — al-Fashaga farming area
22.0
22
0
15%
LOW
P152021-03Brazilcentral bank surprise
Banco Central do Brasil surprise rate hike — inflation response
18.0
18
0
10%
LOW
P152021-04Kyrgyzstanborder clash
Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan border skirmish — Batken enclave clash
25.0
25
0
18%
LOW
P152021-04Colombiaprotest
Colombia tax reform protests — brief urban demonstrations
28.0
28
0
22%
LOW
P152021-04Myanmarsanctions
Australia autonomous sanctions — Myanmar military officials
18.0
18
0
12%
LOW
P152021-06Australiatrade
UK-Australia free trade agreement — bilateral tariff reduction
18.0
18
0
15%
LOW
P152021-07Cubaprotest
Cuba rare protests — July 2021 demonstrations
22.0
22
0
15%
LOW
P152021-09United Kingdompolitical development
UK cabinet reshuffle — Boris Johnson reshuffles ministers
14.9
15
-0.1
8%
LOW
P152021-10Japanpolitical development
Japan PM Kishida cabinet appointment — routine government formation
11.9
12
-0.1
6%
LOW
P152021-11Germanypolitical development
Germany coalition agreement — SPD-Greens-FDP traffic light coalition
20.0
20
0
12%
LOW
P152022-01Tongapolitical development
Tonga volcanic eruption — humanitarian disruption
18.0
18
0
10%
LOW
P152022-02Mexicotrade
US-Mexico avocado import ban — phytosanitary dispute
18.0
18
0
15%
LOW
P152022-03Argentinatrade
Argentina soybean export tax increase — domestic fiscal measure
25.0
25
0
24%
LOW
P152022-03Perupolitical development
Peru presidential impeachment attempt — routine legislative opposition
25.0
25
0
17%
LOW
P152022-05South Koreapolitical development
South Korea presidential transition — Yoon Suk-yeol inauguration
14.9
15
-0.1
8%
LOW
P152022-05Australiapolitical development
Australia Labor election victory — Albanese government formation
11.9
12
-0.1
6%
LOW
P152022-07Italypolitical development
Italy PM Draghi resignation — parliamentary confidence vote
30.0
30
0
23%
LOW
P152022-09Armeniaborder clash
Armenia-Azerbaijan border incident — Nakhchivan sector
30.0
30
0
24%
LOW
P152023-03Francepolitical development
France pension reform protests — Macron Article 49.3 bypass
35.0
35
0
29%
LOW
P152023-06United Kingdomcentral bank surprise
Bank of England surprise vote split — hawkish dissent
20.0
20
0
12%
LOW
P152023-08Japanpolitical development
Fukushima treated water release — Japan ALPS discharge
11.9
12
-0.1
6%
LOW
P152023-10Australiacentral bank surprise
Reserve Bank of Australia surprise rate hold — dovish pivot
14.9
15
-0.1
8%
LOW
P152023-11Panamatrade
Panama Canal drought restrictions — reduced transit slots
25.0
25
0
24%
LOW
BARS: █ model · █ humanERROR: ≤5pts GOOD · ≤10pts OK · >10pts REVIEWClick row to expand