±10 PTS
83%
within 10pts of human
CALIBRATION
GOOD
13×≤5pts · 20×≤10pts
›Model accuracy is GOOD — 83.3% of events within ±10 pts of human label
FINANCIAL CRISIS1×+5.8MAE 5.8 CHOKEPOINT DISRUPTION3×+4.0MAE 4.0 POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT5×-2.5MAE 2.5 EVENTMODELHUMANERRORSEVERITYBARSOUTCOME
P42010-12Tunisiarevolution
Tunisia Arab Spring — Ben Ali overthrow
65.7
65
+0.7
74%
ESCSPILLMED
P42014-05Thailandcoup
Thailand military coup
62.9
58
+4.9
68%
MED
P42016-06United Kingdompolitical development
Brexit referendum
60.1
66
-5.9
74%
SPILLHIG
P42017-11Zimbabwecoup
Zimbabwe — removal of Mugabe
59.9
52
+7.9
62%
LOW
P42018-11Iransanctions
US Iran sanctions reimposed — JCPOA withdrawal
56.4
70
-13.6
78%
ESCSPILLHIG
P42019-05Chinatrade
US-China trade war escalation — May 2019
48.5
62
-13.5
72%
ESCSPILLHIG
P42019-06Hong Kongprotest
Hong Kong protests — Anti-extradition bill escalation
57.0
62
-5
72%
ESCHIG
P42019-06Iranchokepoint disruption
Strait of Hormuz tanker attacks
70.7
68
+2.7
76%
HIG
P42019-10Chileprotest
Chile social uprising — estallido social
54.3
55
-0.7
66%
SPILLMED
P42020-03Saudi Arabiatrade
OPEC oil price war — Saudi-Russia production standoff
50.7
68
-17.3
78%
SPILLHIG
P42020-08Malicoup
Mali coups — double coup cycle
63.9
60
+3.9
70%
ESCSPILLLOW
P42021-01United Statespolitical development
US Capitol riot — January 6 insurrection
60.1
64
-3.9
74%
MED
P42021-03Egyptchokepoint disruption
Suez Canal blockage — Ever Given grounding
66.8
58
+8.8
68%
SPILLHIG
P42021-10Sudancoup
Sudan military coup — removal of civilian transitional government
64.8
62
+2.8
72%
LOW
P42022-01Burkina Fasocoup
Burkina Faso double coup
63.9
58
+5.9
70%
ESCSPILLLOW
P42022-02Russiasanctions
Russia SWIFT exclusion — unprecedented financial sanctions
60.2
82
-21.8
88%
ESCSPILLHIG
P42022-04Pakistanpolitical development
Pakistan political crisis — Imran Khan ouster
58.3
60
-1.7
70%
ESCMED
P42022-05Sri Lankafinancial crisis
Sri Lanka economic and political collapse
71.8
66
+5.8
76%
ESCSPILLMED
P42022-09Iranprotest
Iran Mahsa Amini protests
58.7
66
-7.3
76%
MED
P42022-10Chinasanctions
US semiconductor export controls on China
54.0
63
-9
72%
ESCSPILLHIG
P42022-12Perupolitical development
Peru constitutional crisis — Castillo self-coup attempt
57.4
58
-0.6
68%
ESCMED
P42023-01Brazilpolitical development
Brazil Bolsonaro Capitol riot — January 8 attacks
57.4
58
-0.6
68%
MED
P42023-03Franceprotest
France pension reform protests
50.5
46
+4.5
58%
LOW
P42023-11Yemenchokepoint disruption
Red Sea Houthi shipping attacks
72.5
72
+0.5
80%
ESCSPILLHIG
BARS: █ model · █ humanERROR: ≤5pts GOOD · ≤10pts OK · >10pts REVIEWClick row to expand