±10 PTS
100%
within 10pts of human
CALIBRATION
GOOD
18×≤5pts · 18×≤10pts
›Model accuracy is GOOD — 100.0% of events within ±10 pts of human label
EVENTMODELHUMANERRORSEVERITYBARSOUTCOME
P141973-10Saudi Arabiatrade
OPEC Arab oil embargo — 1973 oil weapon
55.0
55
0
90%
ESCSPILLHIG
P142010-08Russiatrade
Russia wheat export ban — global food price shock
48.0
48
0
71%
SPILLHIG
P142010-09Chinatrade
China rare earth export halt to Japan — strategic mineral weaponisation
50.0
50
0
76%
ESCSPILLHIG
P142017-04Canadatrade
Canada-US softwood lumber dispute — recurring bilateral trade friction
25.0
25
0
24%
LOW
P142017-08Chinatrade
US Section 301 investigation filing — pre-escalation inquiry on China IP theft
22.0
22
0
20%
LOW
P142018-03United Statestrade
US-EU steel tariff exemption negotiations — Section 232 carve-outs
28.0
28
0
29%
LOW
P142019-06Indiatrade
India-US GSP withdrawal — Generalized System of Preferences termination
25.0
25
0
24%
LOW
P142019-06Chinatrade
WTO dispute panel ruling — US-China wind power subsidies (routine)
20.0
20
0
17%
LOW
P142019-10Japantrade
US-Japan digital trade negotiations — bilateral framework agreement
22.0
22
0
20%
LOW
P142020-11Australiatrade
Australia-China wine tariffs — anti-dumping duties on Australian exports
30.0
30
0
32%
LOW
P142021-03United Kingdomtrade
EU-UK post-Brexit trade friction — Northern Ireland Protocol disputes
32.0
32
0
36%
SPILLMOD
P142021-03Chinatrade
COVID container shipping crisis — global supply chain breakdown
52.0
52
0
81%
SPILLHIG
P142022-03Russiatrade
Global fertiliser supply shock — Russia-Ukraine war disruption
50.0
50
0
76%
ESCSPILLHIG
P142022-04Indonesiatrade
Minor agricultural export restriction — Indonesia palm oil export ban
35.0
35
0
42%
MOD
P142022-05Indiatrade
India cotton export ban — global textile supply disruption
45.0
45
0
63%
SPILLMOD
P142022-08Taiwantrade
Taiwan Strait shipping risk premium — cross-strait tension trade impact
45.0
45
0
63%
ESCSPILLHIG
P142023-10European Uniontrade
EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism — CBAM implementation
38.0
38
0
48%
SPILLMOD
P142024-01Yementrade
Red Sea diversion cost impact — Houthi attacks on commercial shipping
55.0
55
0
90%
ESCSPILLHIG
BARS: █ model · █ humanERROR: ≤5pts GOOD · ≤10pts OK · >10pts REVIEWClick row to expand