±10 PTS
95%
within 10pts of human
CALIBRATION
GOOD
24×≤5pts · 36×≤10pts
›Model accuracy is GOOD — 94.7% of events within ±10 pts of human label
FINANCIAL WARFARE2×+0.1MAE 0.1 EVENTMODELHUMANERRORSEVERITYBARSOUTCOME
P91930-06United Statestrade
Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act — protectionism deepens Great Depression
55.6
65
-9.4
92%
ESCSPILLHIG
P91986-10South Africasanctions
South Africa anti-apartheid sanctions — Comprehensive Anti-Apartheid Act
55.2
55
+0.2
75%
HIG
P91990-08Iraqsanctions
Iraq comprehensive sanctions — UNSC 661 full trade embargo
61.0
70
-9
90%
ESCSPILLHIG
P91992-05Serbiasanctions
Yugoslavia/Serbia sanctions — UNSC 757 comprehensive embargo
58.0
62
-4
82%
ESCSPILLMED
P91997-11Sudansanctions
Sudan sanctions — US comprehensive embargo after al-Bashir
54.0
52
+2
72%
LOW
P91999-10Afghanistansanctions
Taliban sanctions — UNSC 1267 regime before 9/11
46.3
35
+11.3
55%
ESCLOW
P92010-06Iransanctions
Iran nuclear-related sanctions — UNSC 1737/1747/1803/1929
57.2
62
-4.8
80%
ESCSPILLMED
P92010-09Chinatrade
China rare earth export restrictions — 2010 Japan dispute
47.7
48
-0.3
70%
SPILLHIG
P92011-02Libyasanctions
Libya Gaddafi-era UN sanctions — UNSC 1970/1973 asset freeze
59.1
66
-6.9
85%
ESCSPILLHIG
P92012-12Russiasanctions
Russia Magnitsky Act — first human rights-based targeted sanctions
43.8
35
+8.8
50%
ESCLOW
P92014-03Russiasanctions
Crimea annexation sanctions — EU/US first Russia sanctions wave
56.4
60
-3.6
78%
ESCSPILLHIG
P92016-01Iransanctions
JCPOA sanctions relief — Iran nuclear deal implementation
39.5
30
+9.5
42%
MED
P92017-08North Koreasanctions
DPRK maximum pressure sanctions — UNSC 2371/2375/2397
59.1
65
-5.9
85%
ESCMED
P92018-03United Statestrade
US Section 232 steel/aluminium tariffs — global trade disruption
49.6
50
-0.4
75%
ESCSPILLMED
P92018-05Iranfinancial warfare
Iran JCPOA-related sanctions — US re-imposes maximum pressure
74.0
74
0
79%
ESCSPILLHIG
P92018-07Chinatrade
US-China Section 301 tariffs — $250B first wave
53.2
58
-4.8
85%
ESCSPILLHIG
P92019-01Venezuelasanctions
Venezuela OFAC sanctions — full oil embargo + PDVSA designation
58.0
58
0
82%
SPILLMED
P92019-05Cubasanctions
Cuba embargo intensification — Helms-Burton Act Title III activated
47.8
40
+7.8
58%
LOW
P92019-05Chinatrade
Huawei Entity List — US export controls on Chinese tech champion
52.2
55
-2.8
82%
ESCSPILLHIG
P92019-07South Koreatrade
Japan-South Korea trade dispute — semiconductor material export controls
46.9
45
+1.9
68%
ESCMED
P92019-07Francetrade
EU digital services tax — US Section 301 retaliation threat
41.4
35
+6.4
55%
ESCSPILLLOW
P92019-08Chinatrade
US-China trade war escalation — tariffs raised to $550B+ coverage
54.3
60
-5.7
88%
ESCSPILLHIG
P92019-10United Statestrade
EU-US Airbus-Boeing subsidy dispute — $11.5B in retaliatory tariffs
42.7
38
+4.7
58%
ESCMED
P92020-03Saudi Arabiatrade
Saudi Arabia oil price war — March 2020 output surge
53.2
55
-1.8
85%
ESCSPILLHIG
P92020-05Australiatrade
China-Australia economic coercion — trade punishment for COVID inquiry
48.5
48
+0.5
72%
ESCMED
P92021-02Myanmarsanctions
Myanmar post-coup sanctions — US/EU/UK target military junta
52.3
48
+4.3
68%
LOW
P92021-05Belarussanctions
Belarus sanctions — EU/US response to election fraud and Ryanair hijacking
51.0
46
+5
65%
LOW
P92021-11Canadatrade
US-Canada softwood lumber dispute — 45-year trade conflict
39.1
32
+7.1
50%
MED
P92021-12Chinasanctions
China Xinjiang-related sanctions — Uyghur Human Rights Policy Act
53.1
52
+1.1
70%
ESCSPILLMED
P92022-01Ethiopiasanctions
Ethiopia sanctions threat — US response to Tigray war
49.6
44
+5.6
62%
LOW
P92022-02Russiafinancial warfare
Russia SWIFT disconnection — EU/US sanctions after Ukraine invasion
91.1
91
+0.1
99%
ESCSPILLHIG
P92022-04Indonesiatrade
Indonesia palm oil export ban — G20 food supply shock
44.5
40
+4.5
62%
SPILLHIG
P92022-05Indiatrade
India export ban on wheat — food protectionism after Ukraine shock
45.7
42
+3.7
65%
SPILLMED
P92022-06Russiatrade
Russia gas supply cuts to Europe — Nord Stream leverage
53.9
58
-4.1
87%
ESCSPILLHIG
P92022-10Saudi Arabiatrade
OPEC+ production cuts — 2M bpd reduction shocks market
48.5
48
+0.5
72%
SPILLHIG
P92022-10Chinatrade
US semiconductor export controls on China — October 7 rules
55.0
62
-7
90%
ESCSPILLHIG
P92023-10Belgiumtrade
EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) — implementation begins
43.6
40
+3.6
60%
SPILLMED
P92025-04United Statestrade
Trump 2025 tariff escalation — 145% on China, 'Liberation Day' tariffs
56.0
68
-12
93%
ESCSPILLHIG
BARS: █ model · █ humanERROR: ≤5pts GOOD · ≤10pts OK · >10pts REVIEWClick row to expand