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TERMINAL
◈
MAP
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BRIEFS
◎
ELECT
⊡
LEADERS
GLOBAL
CALIBRATION DATASET
ALL
P1 — Anchors
P2 — Conflicts
P3 — Economic
P4 — Sanctions
P5 — Edge
P6 — Cyber
P7 — De-escalation
P8 — Border/Nuclear
P9 — Sanctions/Trade
P10 — New Categories
P11 — Hold-out
OUT-OF-SAMPLE
P12 — Fin. Warfare
P13 — Sanctions A
P14 — Trade A
P15 — Sev. Floor
EVENTS
21
Phase 5
MAE
4.8
mean abs error
RMSE
6.4
root mean sq err
BIAS
+1.4
well-calibrated
±10 PTS
86%
within 10pts of human
CALIBRATION
GOOD
13×≤5pts · 18×≤10pts
CALIBRATION EVENTS
MODEL FIT & FINDINGS
WEIGHT SUGGESTIONS
1
›
Model accuracy is GOOD — 85.7% of events within ±10 pts of human label
CATEGORY BREAKDOWN
TRADE
2×
-11.7
MAE 11.7
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT
8×
+3.0
MAE 4.7
FINANCIAL CRISIS
4×
+4.0
MAE 4.0
CHOKEPOINT DISRUPTION
3×
+3.6
MAE 3.6
MILITARY ACTION
4×
+0.3
MAE 3.1
CALIBRATION EVENTS
21 total
SORT
DATE
SCORE
ERROR
EVENT
MODEL
HUMAN
ERROR
SEVERITY
BARS
OUTCOME
P5
2000-03
United States
financial crisis
Dot-com bubble burst
71.8
65
+6.8
76%
SPILL
HIG
P5
2014-11
Saudi Arabia
trade
Saudi Arabia oil price crash — OPEC spare capacity flood
48.5
62
-13.5
72%
ESC
SPILL
HIG
P5
2016-11
United States
political development
Trump 2016 election — global order shock
60.1
66
-5.9
74%
SPILL
HIG
P5
2021-01
United States
financial crisis
GameStop short squeeze
33.0
28
+5
40%
HIG
P5
2021-08
Afghanistan
military action
US withdrawal from Afghanistan — Kabul airport chaos
68.1
62
+6.1
72%
SPILL
MED
P5
2021-09
China
chokepoint disruption
COVID-19 global supply chain breakdown
71.6
68
+3.6
78%
ESC
SPILL
HIG
P5
2021-09
El Salvador
political development
El Salvador Bitcoin legal tender adoption
43.7
32
+11.7
42%
MED
P5
2022-03
Ukraine
chokepoint disruption
Black Sea shipping disruption — Ukraine war maritime escalation
72.5
72
+0.5
80%
ESC
SPILL
HIG
P5
2022-05
Finland
political development
NATO expansion — Finland and Sweden applications
55.5
55
+0.5
64%
MED
P5
2022-08
Taiwan
military action
Taiwan semiconductor risk — Pelosi visit escalation
70.9
70
+0.9
78%
SPILL
HIG
P5
2022-09
Ukraine
military action
Ukraine counteroffensive — Kharkiv breakthrough
71.8
73
-1.2
80%
ESC
SPILL
HIG
P5
2022-09
Russia
military action
Russia partial mobilisation — Ukraine war expansion
73.6
78
-4.4
84%
ESC
SPILL
HIG
P5
2022-10
Saudi Arabia
trade
OPEC+ supply shock — October 2022 production cut
46.1
56
-9.9
66%
SPILL
HIG
P5
2022-10
China
political development
Xi Jinping third term — power consolidation
56.5
57
-0.5
66%
SPILL
HIG
P5
2022-12
Japan
political development
Japan defence buildup — security strategy shift
53.6
52
+1.6
60%
MED
P5
2023-03
United States
financial crisis
Silicon Valley Bank collapse — tech sector contagion
52.8
52
+0.8
58%
HIG
P5
2023-03
Saudi Arabia
political development
Saudi Arabia-Iran rapprochement — China-brokered deal
31.9
18
+13.9
25%
MED
P5
2023-03
Switzerland
financial crisis
Credit Suisse collapse and UBS rescue
63.5
60
+3.5
68%
SPILL
HIG
P5
2023-07
Russia
chokepoint disruption
Ukraine grain corridor crisis — Russia suspension
68.8
62
+6.8
72%
SPILL
HIG
P5
2023-07
Israel
political development
Israel judicial reform crisis
55.5
54
+1.5
64%
MED
P5
2023-08
South Africa
political development
BRICS expansion — Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia invitation
53.6
52
+1.6
60%
MED
BARS:
█
model ·
█
human
ERROR:
≤5pts GOOD
·
≤10pts OK
·
>10pts REVIEW
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