±10 PTS
0%
within 10pts of human
CALIBRATION
POOR
0×≤5pts · 0×≤10pts
›Model has systematic negative bias — under-scores events overall
›Model accuracy is LOW — only 0.0% within ±10 pts. Review before Phase 2.
ARMS CONTROL1×-46.3MAE 46.3 SANCTIONS RELIEF1×-44.0MAE 44.0 PEACE AGREEMENT3×-36.5MAE 36.5 DIPLOMATIC RESOLUTION3×-35.8MAE 35.8 EVENTMODELHUMANERRORSEVERITYBARSOUTCOME
P241998-04United Kingdompeace agreement
Good Friday Agreement ends 30-year Northern Ireland conflict
-3.6
18
-21.6
15%
P242014-12Cubadiplomatic resolution
US-Cuba diplomatic normalization after 54 years
-4.8
30
-34.8
20%
P242015-07Iransanctions relief
JCPOA nuclear deal lifts Iran sanctions regime
-6.0
38
-44
25%
P242016-11Colombiapeace agreement
Colombia FARC peace accord ends 52-year civil war
-4.8
32
-36.8
20%
P242020-09Israeldiplomatic resolution
Abraham Accords normalize Israel-UAE and Israel-Bahrain relations
-5.3
35
-40.3
22%
P242021-02Russiaarms control
New START treaty extends US-Russia nuclear arms control
-4.3
42
-46.3
18%
P242022-11Ethiopiapeace agreement
Ethiopian government and Tigray forces sign cessation of hostilities
-6.0
45
-51
25%
P242023-03Saudi Arabiadiplomatic resolution
Saudi-Iran rapprochement brokered by China in Beijing
-4.3
28
-32.3
18%
BARS: █ model · █ humanERROR: ≤5pts GOOD · ≤10pts OK · >10pts REVIEWClick row to expand