±10 PTS
100%
within 10pts of human
CALIBRATION
GOOD
26×≤5pts · 26×≤10pts
›Model accuracy is GOOD — 100.0% of events within ±10 pts of human label
CENTRAL BANK SURPRISE2×-0.2MAE 0.2 FINANCIAL CRISIS2×0.0MAE 0.2 POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT2×-0.1MAE 0.1 ELECTION CRISIS2×+0.1MAE 0.1 EVENTMODELHUMANERRORSEVERITYBARSOUTCOME
P112010-12Tunisiarevolution
Tunisian Revolution — Ben Ali flees, Arab Spring begins
68.0
68
0
79%
ESCSPILLMOD
P112011-01Egyptrevolution
Egyptian Revolution — Mubarak ousted after 18 days
74.1
74
+0.1
94%
ESCSPILLHIG
P112015-01Switzerlandcentral bank surprise
Swiss franc peg removal — SNB abandons EUR/CHF floor
49.9
50
-0.1
53%
SPILLHIG
P112015-03Yemenconflict
Saudi-led intervention in Yemen — Operation Decisive Storm
67.9
68
-0.1
63%
ESCSPILLMOD
P112016-01Japancentral bank surprise
BOJ negative interest rate policy — NIRP experiment
35.7
36
-0.3
30%
SPILLMOD
P112016-06United Kingdompolitical development
Brexit referendum — UK votes to leave the EU
65.0
65
0
86%
SPILLHIG
P112017-09Kenyaelection crisis
Kenya 2017 election crisis — Supreme Court annuls results
46.0
46
0
53%
ESCMOD
P112019-01Venezuelasanctions
Venezuela PDVSA oil sanctions — US maximum pressure
51.8
52
-0.2
67%
ESCMOD
P112019-06Chinaprotest
Hong Kong anti-extradition bill protests — 2 million march
63.8
64
-0.2
89%
ESCSPILLMOD
P112019-07Japantrade
Japan-Korea trade war — export controls on semiconductors
34.7
35
-0.3
41%
MOD
P112019-10Chileprotest
Chile estallido social — constitutional crisis from metro fare
50.0
50
0
57%
ESCSPILLMOD
P112019-11Boliviaelection crisis
Bolivia election crisis — Morales ousted amid fraud allegations
52.1
52
+0.1
66%
ESCSPILLLOW
P112020-01Chinapandemic
COVID-19 Wuhan lockdown — first pandemic city shutdown
78.1
78
+0.1
77%
ESCSPILLHIG
P112020-09Azerbaijanconflict
Second Nagorno-Karabakh war — Azerbaijan 44-day offensive
62.0
62
0
53%
ESCSPILLLOW
P112020-11Ethiopiaconflict
Ethiopia Tigray war — federal offensive against TPLF
75.0
75
0
77%
ESCSPILLLOW
P112021-02Myanmarcoup
Myanmar military coup — Tatmadaw seizes power from NLD
67.5
68
-0.5
78%
ESCSPILLLOW
P112021-02Myanmarsanctions
Myanmar comprehensive sanctions — post-coup financial isolation
37.8
38
-0.2
39%
LOW
P112021-09Guineacoup
Guinea military coup — special forces seize President Condé
48.2
48
+0.2
42%
MOD
P112021-09Chinafinancial crisis
Evergrande default — China property crisis contagion
58.2
58
+0.2
63%
ESCSPILLHIG
P112021-12United Statescyberattack
Log4Shell vulnerability — ubiquitous open-source crisis
50.3
50
+0.3
35%
SPILLLOW
P112022-09Iranprotest
Iran Mahsa Amini protests — Woman, Life, Freedom
59.1
59
+0.1
77%
ESCSPILLLOW
P112023-03United Statesfinancial crisis
Silicon Valley Bank collapse — fastest bank run in history
51.7
52
-0.3
57%
ESCSPILLHIG
P112023-10Germanytrade
EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) phase-in
28.0
28
0
29%
SPILLLOW
P112024-02United Statescyberattack
Change Healthcare ransomware — US health system paralysis
44.2
44
+0.2
28%
MOD
P112024-03United Statespandemic
H5N1 avian flu dairy cattle outbreak — novel transmission pathway
38.4
38
+0.4
21%
LOW
P112024-07United Statespolitical development
Trump assassination attempt — Butler, PA rally shooting
47.8
48
-0.2
49%
MOD
BARS: █ model · █ humanERROR: ≤5pts GOOD · ≤10pts OK · >10pts REVIEWClick row to expand