±10 PTS
96%
within 10pts of human
CALIBRATION
GOOD
18×≤5pts · 23×≤10pts
›Model accuracy is GOOD — 95.8% of events within ±10 pts of human label
BORDER CLASH1×-6.4MAE 6.4 MILITARY ACTION10×0.0MAE 2.9 EVENTMODELHUMANERRORSEVERITYBARSOUTCOME
P21980-09Iraqconflict
Iran-Iraq War — outbreak
79.9
80
-0.1
88%
ESCSPILLHIG
P21982-04Argentinamilitary action
Falklands War
70.0
68
+2
76%
MED
P21990-08Kuwaitmilitary action
Gulf War — Iraq invasion of Kuwait
75.3
82
-6.7
88%
ESCSPILLHIG
P21999-03Serbiamilitary action
Serbia-Kosovo war — NATO bombing campaign
72.7
74
-1.3
82%
MED
P22003-03Iraqmilitary action
US-led invasion of Iraq — Operation Iraqi Freedom
88.2
84
+4.2
90%
ESCSPILLHIG
P22006-07Lebanonconflict
Second Lebanon War — Israel-Hezbollah conflict
74.5
66
+8.5
76%
MED
P22008-08Georgiaconflict
Russia-Georgia war — Five-Day War
75.5
68
+7.5
78%
MED
P22013-07Egyptcoup
Egypt military coup — removal of President Morsi
66.6
65
+1.6
76%
MED
P22014-06Iraqconflict
ISIS caliphate declaration — territorial peak
79.9
80
-0.1
88%
ESCSPILLHIG
P22015-03Yemenmilitary action
Saudi Arabia intervention in Yemen — Operation Decisive Storm
72.7
74
-1.3
82%
ESCSPILLHIG
P22016-07Turkeycoup
Turkey coup attempt
67.5
70
-2.5
78%
HIG
P22017-11North Koreamilitary action
North Korea ICBM escalation — Hwasong-15 test
70.9
70
+0.9
78%
MED
P22019-04Libyaconflict
Libya civil war — Haftar offensive on Tripoli
72.6
62
+10.6
72%
ESCSPILLMED
P22019-10Syriamilitary action
Turkey military incursion into northeast Syria — Operation Peace Spring
69.6
66
+3.6
75%
SPILLMED
P22020-01Iraqmilitary action
US assassination of Qasem Soleimani — Iran escalation
73.2
78
-4.8
83%
SPILLHIG
P22020-06Indiaborder clash
China-India Galwan Valley clash
58.6
65
-6.4
74%
MED
P22020-09Azerbaijanconflict
Armenia-Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh war — 44-day war
76.4
70
+6.4
80%
MED
P22020-11Ethiopiaconflict
Ethiopia Tigray war escalation
78.2
74
+4.2
84%
ESCSPILLLOW
P22021-02Myanmarcoup
Myanmar military coup
68.4
70
-1.6
80%
ESCMED
P22021-05Israelmilitary action
Gaza conflict escalation — Operation Guardian of the Walls
69.1
65
+4.1
74%
MED
P22023-04Sudanconflict
Sudan civil war — RSF-SAF conflict outbreak
78.6
76
+2.6
85%
ESCSPILLLOW
P22023-07Nigercoup
Niger military coup
65.7
62
+3.7
74%
SPILLLOW
P22023-09Azerbaijanmilitary action
Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh offensive
71.8
72
-0.2
80%
LOW
P22023-10Israelconflict
Israel-Hamas war — sustained Gaza campaign
79.9
82
-2.1
88%
ESCSPILLHIG
BARS: █ model · █ humanERROR: ≤5pts GOOD · ≤10pts OK · >10pts REVIEWClick row to expand