±10 PTS
100%
within 10pts of human
CALIBRATION
GOOD
7×≤5pts · 10×≤10pts
›Model accuracy is GOOD — 100.0% of events within ±10 pts of human label
CENTRAL BANK SURPRISE2×-4.3MAE 4.3 FINANCIAL CRISIS8×+3.4MAE 3.4 EVENTMODELHUMANERRORSEVERITYBARSOUTCOME
P31997-07Thailandfinancial crisis
Asian Financial Crisis — Thailand baht devaluation
83.4
82
+1.4
88%
ESCSPILLHIG
P31998-08Russiafinancial crisis
Russian sovereign default — ruble crisis
77.7
74
+3.7
82%
SPILLHIG
P32001-12Argentinafinancial crisis
Argentina sovereign debt default
81.5
78
+3.5
86%
ESCSPILLHIG
P32010-05Greecefinancial crisis
Eurozone sovereign debt crisis — Greece bailout
79.6
78
+1.6
84%
ESCSPILLHIG
P32015-01Switzerlandcentral bank surprise
Swiss franc shock — SNB removes EUR/CHF floor
58.3
60
-1.7
70%
SPILLHIG
P32021-09Chinafinancial crisis
China Evergrande crisis — default and contagion fears
67.7
62
+5.7
72%
SPILLHIG
P32021-12Turkeyfinancial crisis
Turkey lira currency crisis
69.8
64
+5.8
74%
ESCHIG
P32022-09United Kingdomfinancial crisis
UK mini-budget fiscal crisis — Truss government collapse
67.7
65
+2.7
72%
HIG
P32022-12Japancentral bank surprise
Bank of Japan YCC policy shift
51.0
58
-7
55%
SPILLHIG
P32023-03United Statesfinancial crisis
US regional banking crisis — Silicon Valley Bank collapse
67.7
65
+2.7
72%
SPILLHIG
BARS: █ model · █ humanERROR: ≤5pts GOOD · ≤10pts OK · >10pts REVIEWClick row to expand