±10 PTS
90%
within 10pts of human
CALIBRATION
GOOD
5×≤5pts · 9×≤10pts
›Model accuracy is GOOD — 90.0% of events within ±10 pts of human label
FINANCIAL CRISIS1×+6.0MAE 6.0 MILITARY ACTION4×-1.9MAE 3.0 EVENTMODELHUMANERRORSEVERITYBARSOUTCOME
P12001-09United Statesmilitary action
September 11 attacks
89.5
93
-3.5
97%
ESCSPILLHIG
P12001-10Afghanistanmilitary action
US invasion of Afghanistan — Operation Enduring Freedom
88.2
86
+2.2
90%
ESCSPILLHIG
P12008-09United Statesfinancial crisis
Lehman Brothers collapse — Global Financial Crisis peak
94.0
88
+6
93%
ESCSPILLHIG
P12011-01Egyptrevolution
Arab Spring — Egypt revolution
67.5
65
+2.5
78%
ESCSPILLMED
P12014-02Russiamilitary action
Russia annexation of Crimea
72.7
78
-5.3
82%
SPILLMED
P12020-01Chinapandemic
COVID-19 pandemic outbreak declared
92.3
85
+7.3
92%
ESCSPILLHIG
P12020-03United Statespandemic
COVID-19 market crash
92.1
83
+9.1
91%
ESCSPILLHIG
P12021-08Afghanistancoup
Taliban takeover of Afghanistan
72.6
84
-11.4
90%
SPILLMED
P12022-02Russiaconflict
Russia full-scale invasion of Ukraine
91.7
94
-2.3
97%
ESCSPILLHIG
P12023-10Israelmilitary action
Hamas October 7 attack on Israel
89.1
90
-0.9
95%
ESCSPILLHIG
BARS: █ model · █ humanERROR: ≤5pts GOOD · ≤10pts OK · >10pts REVIEWClick row to expand